Gathan Beaga


After last night’s count, the first, melodramatic paragraph of my previous post still holds, no matter which side of the fence one is on. The result is so close that it’s difficult to make complete sense of the possibilities once the special votes, fully 10% of all votes cast, are counted.

Because after that it all depends on something called the Sainte-Laguë allocation formula, a complicated procedure that I’ve just spent a little time (unsuccessfully) trying to unravel.

Luckily, David Farrar is on to it (despite not having a maths degree and nursing a massive hangover). His posting summarises the various results and some oddities likely after the special vote count.

The important thing from my perspective is that the Greens are reasonably likely to pick up another MP. The more the merrier, I reckon. And David, channelling Saint-Laguë, says that this would likely be at the expense of the centre-right National Party.

But as he points out, it’s too early to say for sure. It’s going to be an interesting couple of weeks.